Older couple walking down street. (credit: FORMAT arw on Unsplash)
Don’t expect to see much gain in life expectancy over the next few decades. According to an analysis published in the journal The Lancet, life expectancy in the United States is expected to increase by just 2.1 years over the next three decades. Specifically, that means going from 78.3 years in 2022 to 80.4 years in 2050. These predictions come from a forecasting model from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
Researchers assessed the impacts of hundreds of health risks and diseases in individual states and the country. They compared these to more than 200 other countries, including high-income and some middle-income countries. The U.S. is expected to lose ground in life expectancy gains, dropping behind most other wealthy nations.
In 2022, the U.S. ranked 49th in overall life expectancy among the 204 countries studied. That is expected to fall to 66th in 2050, according to the IMHE analysis.
Life expectancy among women is predicted to improve less than that of men, reducing the gap between the sexes. According to the rankings, women are expected to drop from 51st to 74th and from 51st to 65th among men. The slight increase in life expectancy is expected to be attributable to a decline in a few leading causes of death, including diabetes, heart disease, and stroke.
The researchers assert that addressing a few key risk factors could alter the expectations for the better. These include reducing obesity and decreasing rates of smoking and drug use disorders. The scientists predict that these improvements could add six months to overall life expectancy by 2050.
“In spite of modest increases in life expectancy overall, our models forecast health improvements slowing down due to rising rates of obesity, which is a serious risk factor to many chronic diseases and forecasted to leap to levels never before seen,” says Christopher Murray, director of IHME and co-senior author of the new research, in a media release. “The rise in obesity and overweight rates in the U.S., with IHME forecasting over 260 million people affected by 2050, signals a public health crisis of unimaginable scale.”
GLP-1 drugs are showing promise in affecting rates of diabetes and diabetes control, but their use in weight reduction is too new to predict their effects on life expectancy. These were not calculated into the prediction.
Data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Prevention and Control indicate that deaths from drug overdose have started to decline from record levels but remain high. IMHE predicts that drug use disorders and overdose deaths will increase between now and 2050. In fact, the institute estimates that the mortality rate from drug use disorders will be the highest in the world – more than twice as high as the second-highest country, which is Canada.
“The stark contrast that’s forecasted in the next 30 years comes after a concerted effort by federal, state, and local government agencies and health systems launched after the opioid crisis was declared a public health emergency in 2017. The opioid epidemic is far from over, and greater effectiveness and continued expansion of programs to prevent and treat drug use are still needed,” writes Ali Mokdad, IHME professor and lead author of the report.
If the United States eliminated risk in several key areas, there would be 550,000 fewer deaths in the U.S. in 2050, and life expectancy would increase by nearly four years. This change would align with mortality rates in Canada. Those key areas include childhood nutrition and vaccination, environment, metabolic risks, and high-risk behaviors.
A doctor’s recommendation
This life expectancy does not have to be your life expectancy. These are averages. Don’t be average. Instead, do what you have to do to achieve and maintain a healthy weight. Move your body. Move your mind. Build supportive relationships. Have as much fun as possible. Cultivate gratitude. Most importantly – give. Give of your time, your resources, your skills and talents. You’ll get more life out of life and may extend your life.
