Moana 2 continued to surpass all expectations and finished with $389 million as the top animated movie opening weekend of all time at the worldwide box office, besting Inside Out 2’s own record-setting bow this summer by almost $100 million.
Moana 2’s Record-Breaking Debut
Previously, Moana 2 was already blowing the doors off the box office and besting estimates with a projected $375 million as of Saturday, which in turn was a big bump past initial pre-holiday predictions pegging the film’s performance somewhere closer to $250-300 million globally.
Instead, Moana 2’s domestic ticket sales alone almost hit those figures, with more than $225 million in North America. Additionally, Moana 2 put up the biggest Thanksgiving gross in cinema history and biggest post-Thanksgiving day as well.
All told, this helped boost stateside sales to a new record for the holiday, at more than $420 million. While 2024 will still wind up down overall, every win helps.
And it’s worth noting, there’s no denying animation has done more than its share of heavy lifting these days—just the top performers Inside Out 2 ($1.698 billion), Despicable Me 4 ($969 million), Kung Fu Panda 4 ($547), The Wild Robot ($321 million), and Moana 2 ($389 million) have already contributed nearly $4 billion to the year’s coffers, with Moana 2 set to increase that past the $5 billion mark.
It’s early in Moana 2’s release, obviously, but there’s much we can discern from its debut numbers, particularly in the context of current theatrical competition and the trifecta of holidays from now through the start of 2025.
Already, even a modest 2.5x final multiplier would send Moana 2 sailing past $970 million. But with two weeks of open seas ahead at the box office and only moderate challengers arriving in mid-December, Moana 2 should see plenty of repeat business as well as audiences who waited until opening weekend and the Thanksgiving crunch were over before venturing to multiplexes with their families and friends.
But consider that Moana 2 is playing at record-shattering levels—even ahead of Inside Out 2, which this summer became the highest-grossing animated film of all time with $1.698 billion—despite Wicked also occupying a strong position at the box office as another family-friendly popular brand that looks to have long legs through the coming holiday season. At $359 million worldwide and counting, Wicked is already the biggest Broadway film adaptation ever released in domestic theaters.
The fact Moana 2 is able to perform at such sky-high levels alongside Wicked’s success, then, points to both the power of the Disney franchise’s brand as well as to the positive word of mouth driving the film’s success.
Good thing, then, that it has a long runway ahead with no serious obstacles to slow it down until December 20th. Then there’s the sheer power of the Christmas holiday season to create nice big waves that lift all boats higher into the New Year, where Moana 2 should get a good boost at just the time it might otherwise see more of a falloff in attendance and momentum.
Can Moana 2 Top The 2024 Charts?
Moana 2 will finish Monday with a worldwide total, pushing it into the year’s top-10 highest earners—probably the #9 position — after just six days in release. By end of business Thursday ahead of its second weekend, Moana 2 should challenge Kung Fu Panda 4’s $547.6 million for the #6 spot on the year’s charts.
Exactly how high up those charts Moana 2 climbs — even though we know it will be high —are still uncertain.
It will take a 3.44x final multiplier for Moana 2 to best Deadpool & Wolverine’s $1.338 billion to become the second-highest grossing movie of the year. And a 4.4x final multiplier is what it would take to send Moana 2 past Inside Out 2 for the year’s box office crown.
Looking back at Inside Out 2’s run, that film opened to $295 million around the world before building so much momentum and must-see buzz that it finished with a mind-blowing 5.75x final multiplier (i.e., the final box office of $1.698 billion divided by the opening weekend of $295 million).
While I don’t expect Moana 2 to play as long and strong as Inside Out 2, I do believe the combination of factors will all add up to Moana 2 enjoying a generous final multiplier somewhere in the 4x range.
That would be good enough to push Moana 2 past $1.55 billion and into second place on the 2024 box office charts. This is where I currently think Moana 2 will finish its run, with a low-end prediction of about $1.4 billion and a high-end of $1.6 billion—all still landing the film in that #2 position.
The lowest end of my expectations would be a larger than expected drop next weekend, due to heavier front-loading, and then more interest in the new releases mid-December. That would reduce momentum and might lead to a subsequent larger decline in audience target demos when Christmas arrives with a new batch of releases.
In that case, then, I would guess a final box office for Moana 2 somewhere right around $1.1 billion or slightly less. So, ahead even of the worst-case $900+ million mentioned earlier.
But as noted, it’s still extremely early to try to guess so far into the future, regardless of how much initial data we have to consider.
So, if Moana 2’s weekday earnings plus second weekend wind up overperforming on par with its opening figures, then it could easily put itself close enough to $1 billion on its third weekend to provide the momentum capable of overtaking Inside Out 2 through the Christmas holiday. I’ll be watching this week and next weekend closely.
